How Much Is Poplars on the Epte Worth?

Painted in 1891, Poplars on the Epte belongs to Monet’s mature period of serial experimentation, contemporaneous with Haystacks and immediately preceding the Rouen Cathedrals. The Poplars series is central to scholarship on Monet’s investigation of shifting light and atmospheric conditions, and examples reside across major museum collections. The narrative of Monet persuading the timber merchant to delay felling the trees until he finished the series adds lore and provenance depth. Within Monet’s oeuvre, Poplars rank just below the most coveted Water Lilies and Haystacks but remain core, iconic subject matter. This art-historical status translates directly into market appetite, supporting high liquidity and strong competition when top examples appear.

Three very recent, like-for-like auctions of 1891 Poplars provide a precise pricing spine: $36.46m (Christie’s, 2022), $30.7m (Sotheby’s, 2023), and a new series record at $42.96m (Christie’s, 2025). These results reflect differing variants (autumn, overcast, twilight), sale dynamics, and provenance. In aggregate, they demonstrate a stable mid-30s floor for strong examples and clear headroom into the low-40s and beyond for compelling palettes, fresh-to-market material, and high-profile consignments. This concentration of data within the same series and date allows a narrow, well-supported valuation band for the Tate/National Gallery work and underpins the $40–55 million estimate.

Value within the Poplars is particularly sensitive to time-of-day effects (color temperature and atmospheric drama), compositional clarity of the vertical trunks, and paint-surface integrity. The Tate picture’s scale (c. 92 × 74 cm) is directly comparable to the recent auctioned peers, neutralizing size as a pricing discount or premium. Condition—gloss, impasto retention, absence of abrasion or overcleaning—can move outcomes by multiple millions at the top end. While museum stewardship often correlates with careful conservation and robust literature, a formal condition report remains a critical swing factor. In our range, top-of-band pricing assumes excellent surface quality and a particularly engaging variant.

Long-term placement in a national collection (Tate on loan to the National Gallery) signals canonical status and extensive exhibition history, conferring reputational capital that trophy buyers prize. While museum-held works seldom deaccession, the pedigree attached to this specific painting would be a meaningful commercial asset if it were ever available. A full provenance and literature survey, including early dealer records (e.g., Durand-Ruel), catalogue raisonné citations, and major retrospectives, would likely strengthen the narrative and marketability. The absence of public sale history removes auction momentum signals but is offset by institutional visibility and scholarship.

Monet’s market is among the most liquid and global in pre-20th-century art. The artist’s $110.7m record, repeated $60–75m Water Lilies results, and consistent mid-eight-figure outcomes for prime series pictures form a deep pricing stack that supports confidence in new consignments. Recent geographic expansion, including strong APAC bidding and a $30m Hong Kong Monet, indicates diversified demand sources. Auction houses routinely guarantee top Monets, ensuring placement and competitive theater. Within this structure, Poplars sit in a resilient tier: below the apex Water Lilies/Haystacks but squarely in the blue-chip zone, sustaining the $40–55m estimate for a first-rate 1891 example.