How Much Is The Execution of Emperor Maximilian Worth?

The Execution of Emperor Maximilian is among Manet’s most consequential works and a cornerstone of modern political painting. It reframes the history painting tradition in a starkly contemporary key, frequently compared to Goya’s Third of May, and has served as a touchstone in scholarship, teaching, and exhibitions for decades. The London canvas, despite being composite, is central to the cycle’s historiography and interpretation. Its sustained visibility in major institutions and literature confers a durable cultural premium that transcends short-term market cycles. For collectors and museums, this is an academically canonical image—precisely the type of work that commands trophy-level competition when available, and that justifies extrapolation above the artist’s prior auction peak.

Supply of A‑tier Manets is exceptionally thin, with the vast majority of headline canvases permanently in museums. Within the Maximilian series, all principal versions reside in institutions, removing direct substitutes from the market. Manet’s public record was set by an exceptional portrait in 2014; since then, no comparably important, large-scale figure painting has tested price discovery, largely because such material is institutionally absorbed. That structural scarcity boosts the valuation of any hypothetical offering of equivalent gravitas, especially one tied to a defining chapter in Manet’s practice. In short, market-accessible peers do not exist, and the absence of alternatives supports a significant scarcity premium over historical auction benchmarks.

The National Gallery canvas survives as a composite reassembled from fragments acquired by Degas, then remounted to approximate the original composition. This unique history is a celebrated part of the work’s narrative; however, areas of loss and the structural joins constitute a material condition consideration. In valuation terms, this profile adds provenance allure while imposing a rational cap relative to a pristine A‑plus Manet of similar scale and importance. The balance of these effects is explicitly priced into the $100–150 million range: condition constrains the upper tail yet does not negate the painting’s singular historical weight, exhibition pedigree, and visibility in the canon.

The Degas connection—his role in reuniting the fragments—and the 1918 acquisition by the National Gallery, London, create a rare, bulletproof provenance chain. The work has been the subject of deep institutional research and flagship exhibitions, including MoMA’s 2006 Manet and the Execution of Maximilian focus, which reinforced its centrality in modern art discourse. Such institutional validation functions as a multiplier in high-end pricing, especially when combined with an impeccable ownership record. This level of exhibition and literature saturation typically drives strong institutional and private interest, increases bidder confidence, and supports a value materially above the artist’s standard auction comparables.

Manet’s auction record of $65.1 million for Jeanne (Spring) (2014) sets the last public high-water mark, while recent sales—such as the $10.1 million 1882 still life in 2024—demonstrate ongoing depth for quality works. Cross-artist results in the Modern category (e.g., nine-figure Klimt prices) confirm current market capacity for museum-grade trophies. Together these signals justify an estimate above Manet’s record for a work of this historical magnitude, yet below the very top tier of the category due to condition. The proposed $100–150 million band aligns with observed appetite for canonical, institutionally endorsed masterpieces in today’s selective but well-capitalized marquee auctions.