How Much Is Paris Street; Rainy Day Worth?

Estimated value (hypothetical): $150–200 million. Gustave Caillebotte’s Paris Street; Rainy Day (1877) is the artist’s signature masterpiece: a monumental, era‑defining view of Haussmann’s Paris that debuted at the Third Impressionist Exhibition and now anchors the Art Institute of Chicago’s collection [1][6]. Its scale, subject, and canonical status position it among the most recognizable 19th‑century cityscapes, and the work is effectively off‑market.

Artist benchmarks. The top public price for Caillebotte is $53.03 million (with fees) for Jeune homme à sa fenêtre (1876), sold in New York in 2021 to the J. Paul Getty Museum—evidence of strong institutional demand at the summit of his market [2]. In 2023, France (Musée d’Orsay) acquired Partie de bateau for €43 million in a privately brokered, state‑supported acquisition, confirming depth at the high end for museum‑caliber pictures [3]. These two institutional purchases form a firm base from which to extrapolate for the artist’s most famous canvas.

Cross‑artist trophy comparables. At the top of late‑19th‑century painting, recent marquee sales include Georges Seurat’s Les Poseuses, Ensemble (Petite version) at $149.24 million and Paul Cézanne’s La Montagne Sainte‑Victoire at $137.79 million, both in 2022 at Christie’s Paul G. Allen auctions [4]. Claude Monet’s Meules achieved $110.75 million at Sotheby’s in 2019, a durable benchmark for an unimpeachable Impressionist icon [5]. These results define the current band for museum‑quality “trophy” works in this period.

Why this painting commands $150–200 million. Paris Street; Rainy Day is more culturally resonant and academically central than the artist’s $53 million record holder; it is the textbook image associated with Caillebotte and a staple of Impressionist survey literature and exhibitions [1][6]. The scarcity of equivalently important Caillebottes—many already in museums—adds a significant rarity premium. Triangulating the artist’s own peak results with the Seurat/Cézanne/Monet trophy band supports a nine‑figure valuation comfortably above $100 million, with $150–200 million an appropriate range for a New York or London evening sale or a carefully managed private treaty.

Market positioning and conditions. The Impressionist/Modern category has remained resilient for best‑in‑class works, with disciplined use of guarantees and robust bidding when supply is exceptional. In that context, this painting would attract deep cross‑category competition from global collectors and institutions. Under peak conditions—freshness, pristine condition confirmed by conservation, and optimal sale venue—competitive bidding could challenge the top of the stated range.

Provenance and exhibition history. The work’s continuous, well‑documented provenance—from the Caillebotte family to Walter P. Chrysler Jr., then via Wildenstein to the Art Institute of Chicago in 1964—coupled with its 1877 exhibition debut, enhances its desirability and mitigates transactional risk [1][6].