How Much Is Children on the Seashore, Guernsey Worth?

$10-16 million

Last updated: February 4, 2026

Quick Facts

Insurance Value
$18.0M (Author estimate (replacement-value premium over FMV))
Methodology
comparable analysis

Fair-market value for Pierre-Auguste Renoir’s Children on the Seashore, Guernsey is estimated at $10–16 million as of February 2026. The large, multi-figure seaside composition from the prized 1883 Guernsey campaign, coupled with museum-level provenance (MFA Boston), supports low–mid eight figures. Recent sales of prime-period figural Renoirs, including a $10.41m Baigneuse in 2025, anchor the range.

Children on the Seashore, Guernsey

Children on the Seashore, Guernsey

Pierre-Auguste Renoir, about 1883 • Oil on canvas

Read full analysis of Children on the Seashore, Guernsey

Valuation Analysis

Conclusion: We estimate a current fair-market value of $10–16 million for Pierre-Auguste Renoir’s Children on the Seashore, Guernsey (oil on canvas, 26.1 × 36.0 in; Museum of Fine Arts, Boston). The work dates to 1883 and belongs to Renoir’s sought-after Guernsey campaign; its substantial scale, multi-figure seaside subject, and long institutional provenance position it in the low–mid eight figures if it were to be brought to market [1].

Comparables and price logic: The estimate is anchored by recent public benchmarks for prime-period figural Renoirs. A high-quality Baigneuse (1891) realized $10.41 million at Christie’s New York in November 2025, confirming robust demand for blue-chip figural oils in the current cycle [2]. Additional support comes from strong early-1880s figural works such as Jeune fille endormie (1880), which achieved £4.962m (~$6m) at Christie’s London in 2023 [4]. Within the Guernsey corpus specifically, a smaller canvas with figures, Rochers de Guernesey avec personnages (1883), brought £443,250 in 2020—evidence that the series is actively collected and that scale, subject focus, and pictorial complexity drive premiums within it [3]. Taken together, these comparables indicate that a larger, multi-figure Guernsey beach scene of museum quality would command a significant step-up over mid-single-digit results, aligning with a $10–16m range.

Art-historical and qualitative drivers: Renoir’s 1883 sojourn on Guernsey yielded a concentrated body of coastal works prized for their luminous light, fresh palette, and intimate figuration. Children on the Seashore, Guernsey exemplifies market-favored attributes: multiple figures, an engaging seaside motif, and a refined yet spontaneous facture characteristic of Renoir’s early 1880s prime. The MFA Boston provenance (Spaulding bequest, 1948) adds an institutional pedigree that buyers value for due diligence and quality assurance [1]. While not among the artist’s handful of universally iconic images, it stands as a museum-level composition from a distinguished series, which supports an eight-figure valuation.

Market context and positioning: Despite a thinner trophy supply in 2024, the Impressionist and Post-Impressionist sector remains deep; polarization favors best-in-class material, with prime works outperforming estimates while average examples face selectivity. The Art Basel & UBS Art Market Report attributes recent auction value declines largely to scarcity of top lots, not demand contraction—implying continued readiness to compete for quality [5]. Against this backdrop, Renoir’s blue-chip status (record $78.1m for Bal du moulin de la Galette, 1990) frames the upper bound of potential while validating strong pricing for prime-period figural subjects [6].

Insurance view: Given the rarity of close substitutes and the challenges of replacement sourcing from this exact campaign, an insurance replacement value modestly above FMV is warranted; we indicate $18 million for coverage placement.

Key Valuation Factors

Art Historical Significance

High Impact

Painted in 1883, this canvas belongs to Renoir’s focused Guernsey campaign—an academically recognized moment that produced some of his most lyrical coastal scenes. The subject—children on the seashore—intertwines Renoir’s celebrated figural sensibility with a sparkling maritime setting, aligning perfectly with collector preferences for intimate, life-filled compositions. Within the oeuvre, Guernsey works carry a distinct narrative and scholarly resonance, reinforced by recent exhibitions and cataloguing. The painting synthesizes key elements of the artist’s prime-period approach—fresh color, flickering light, and tender observation—supporting a premium over landscape-only views. While not among Renoir’s few canonical icons, it is a museum-level work from a well-defined, desirable series, which materially elevates its value.

Subject, Composition, and Quality

High Impact

Multi-figure figuration outdoors is a leading price driver for Renoir. Children engaged at the shoreline offers immediate emotional appeal and strong wall power. The composition’s breadth and narrative depth create a sense of lived experience that draws collectors and institutions alike. Color harmonies and handling typical of the early 1880s—fluid yet controlled brushwork, light-suffused flesh tones—underscore quality. Among comparable coastal subjects, scenes with clearly legible figures outperform more generalized vistas, and multifigure arrangements typically outpace single-figure studies. The integration of figure, sea, and shore in a cohesive, balanced design places this work above mid-market examples and in line with eight-figure potential for prime-period, figural Renoir oils.

Provenance and Institutional Pedigree

High Impact

The long-term presence of this painting in the Museum of Fine Arts, Boston (via the John T. Spaulding bequest) adds a powerful imprimatur of quality and authenticity. Institutional stewardship often correlates with careful conservation, rigorous documentation, and scholarly exposure—attributes that de-risk acquisition for top buyers. Works with demonstrably stable ownership histories and clear literature/exhibition trails command premiums over comparable paintings lacking such pedigree. For valuation, MFA Boston provenance increases market confidence, broadening the pool of potential bidders and justifying placement toward the upper half of the range relative to like-for-like private-market comparables without museum associations.

Scale, Condition, and Substitutability

Medium Impact

At approximately 26.1 × 36.0 inches (66.4 × 91.4 cm), the painting is substantially larger than many Guernsey canvases, enhancing presence and driving comparability with higher-tier figural works. While a current technical report is not public, the combination of MFA stewardship and mature 19th-century oil technique typically yields stable, attractive surfaces for works of this caliber. Importantly, direct substitutes—similarly scaled, multi-figure Guernsey beach scenes of matching quality—are scarce. This scarcity underlies both the eight-figure FMV conclusion and a higher insurance replacement indication, as sourcing a near-equivalent would be challenging even with time and resources.

Sale History

Children on the Seashore, Guernsey has never been sold at public auction.

Pierre-Auguste Renoir's Market

Pierre-Auguste Renoir is a cornerstone of the Impressionist market with a deep, global collector base. His auction record stands at $78.1 million for Bal du moulin de la Galette (Sotheby’s, 1990), evidencing long-term blue-chip status. Pricing is highly sensitive to period, subject, size, and quality: prime 1870s–1890s figural oils consistently achieve strong seven to low eight figures, as seen with Baigneuse (1891) at $10.41m in 2025 and Jeune fille endormie (1880) at about $6m in 2023. Late works and lesser subjects typically trade lower. Clean provenance and institutional pedigrees are increasingly prized, with competition intensifying for best-in-class, fresh-to-market material.

Comparable Sales

Baigneuse

Pierre-Auguste Renoir

Prime-period figural Renoir (classic bather subject) showing current trophy-level demand for high-quality oils; close market proxy for top-tier figural Renoir pricing, though not a Guernsey scene.

$10.4M

2025, Christie's New York

La Promenade au bord de la mer (Le Bois de la Chaise, Noirmoutier)

Pierre-Auguste Renoir

Figural seaside subject strongly aligned with the MFA work’s theme (coastal promenade/shoreline), albeit later (1892) and different locale; useful mid–upper market benchmark for coastal figure scenes.

$4.5M

2025, Christie's Hong Kong

Baigneuse (1882)

Pierre-Auguste Renoir

Very close in date to 1883; prime-period figural subject associated with water/bathing; indicates current market depth for single-figure oils near the Guernsey campaign.

$3.0M

2025, Sotheby's Hong Kong

Jeune fille endormie (La dormeuse)

Pierre-Auguste Renoir

Prime 1880 figural oil demonstrating demand for high-quality portraits/figures from the key early 1880s; not a seaside scene but a strong indicator for subject-driven pricing.

$6.0M

2023, Christie's London

~$6.5M adjusted

Sur la falaise

Pierre-Auguste Renoir

Coastal subject from the late 1870s; more landscape-driven but still a useful gauge for seascape demand relative to figural beach scenes.

$2.4M

2024, Christie's London

~$2.4M adjusted

Rochers de Guernesey avec personnages (plage à Guernesey)

Pierre-Auguste Renoir

Directly from the 1883 Guernsey campaign with figures; smaller scale and less complex composition than the MFA work, but a close subject-series comparator.

$575K

2020, Christie's London

~$702K adjusted

Current Market Trends

Impressionist/Post-Impressionist auction turnover contracted in 2023–2024, driven by a shortage of top-tier consignments rather than demand weakness. The market has polarized: masterpiece-caliber works attract intense bidding, while average examples face cautious, estimate-sensitive buying. In late 2025, renewed strength at the high end (including notable Renoir results) confirmed sustained appetite for prime-period, figural subjects. Collectors prioritize condition, provenance clarity, and curatorially significant series. In this environment, a large-scale, multi-figure coastal Renoir from 1883, with museum-level pedigree, fits the profile of works that secure competitive pricing and, if offered with proper preparation, can clear in the low–mid eight figures.

Disclaimer: This estimate is for informational and educational purposes only. It is based on publicly available data and AI analysis. It should not be used for insurance, tax, estate planning, or sale purposes. For formal appraisals, consult a certified appraiser.